When Donald Trump lands in Riyadh, he will be greeted with opulent ceremonies, gilded palaces and the prospect of major investments. But the war in Gaza denies him one goal he craves: Saudi-Israel normalization.

For Trump, a president who often boasts about "holding the cards" in high-stakes negotiations—most famously during a heated encounter with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House in late February—Lipner felt the U.S. leader once again appears to have the necessary leverage to get his way.