A fox, a hedgehog and an LLM – it sounds like the beginning of a joke, but this is in fact the introduction to a topic that is consuming the attention of Philip Tetlock, psychology professor, ...

To his credit, Kasy is a realist here. He doesn’t presume that any of these proposals will be easy to implement. Or that it will happen overnight, or even in the near future. The troubling question at ...

At the end of 2024, no AI had even managed to place 100th in one of the major competitions. But they have since vaulted up the leaderboards. AIs have already proved that they can make superhuman ...

Reactions to Kimmel's suspension, Trump publicly rebukes Putin, and more Length: Long Speed: 1.0x Every three months, participants in the Metaculus forecasting cup try to predict the future for a ...

We asked Al Jean, the longest-serving showrunner, about all the conspiracy theories. According to internet listicles, the animated sitcom The Simpsons has predicted the future anywhere from 17 to 55 ...

People are now betting on everything. Prediction markets are amplifying those signals. The timing of the U.S. government shutdown. The likelihood of Taylor Swift canceling a tour date. The exact day ...

Every three months, participants in the Metaculus forecasting cup try to predict the future for a prize pot of about $5,000. Metaculus, a forecasting platform, poses questions of geopolitical ...