Today’s stock market is so overvalued that it won’t take much of a piece of straw to break the camel’s back — much less an economic or geopolitical shock from the Middle East. Compare the stock market’s valuation today with where it stood in October 1973,

U.S. crude oil futures rallied more than 6 percent to peak at $78 a barrel, more than $1 higher than the price on Jan. 20 when Trump was inaugurated. That jump is likely to filter through to gasoline prices just as drivers prepare to hit the road for the long July 4 weekend next week.

The average return on the stocks is negative for the week and month after geopolitical conflicts. The economic risk is higher oil prices, a headwind to global growth.