While recession odds have been dialed back in recent weeks, economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal still see 33% odds of one coming within a year, compared with 22% at the start of 2025. Meanwhile, earnings estimates for the S&P 500 compiled by research group FactSet are 3% lower since then, the Journal said.

U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade deal with Japan has sparked fresh optimism that the global economy will manage to avoid getting hit with extremely elevated tariffs, even as many U.S. trading partners still don’t have agreements.

U.S. President Donald Trump said Friday that his administration will have most of its trade deals with countries finished by Aug. 1, as South Korea and other trading partners are striving to reach agreements to lower its "reciprocal" tariff rates by the negotiation deadline.